Marcs Weekly Analysis

Marc Walton on September 14, 2014 

 

Hi, we have spoken a great deal about fundamentals in recent months and how important it is to analyse whats causing price action. We look at data the same way astock trader investor looks at a companies balance sheet.
We also gauge sentiment and then use techncial analysis to find our entries. Technical analysis is the final part of the puzzle and we are looking for repeatable patterns.
So what do we do for the week ahead with the British Pound? Fundamentally and sentiment wise its impossible to gauge because of the Scottish referendum this week and then technically this situation has never arisen in the previous 300 years so a little before chart patterns were used in trading!
So what do we do re the Gbp and all its pairs? Absolutely nothing! Its a mugs game and certainly trades taken will be by those who like to gamble, not those who wish to trade professionally using strict risk and money management
One of the members asked me if it was worth “hedging” a Gbp trade. In other words place a buy order below and a sell order above? Well it could work, Then again both could lose and if price jumps stops which it could well do your risk will have been incalcuable. Best advice, avoid the temptation and walk away
My personal suspicion is that it will be a no vote and not as close as polls are suggesting BUT thats a guess and I could be totally wrong. The Britsh establishment heavyweights are now belatedly touring Scotland & hammering the point that the Scots will lose out big time from a break up of the union and therefore opinion appears to be shifting away from hearts to heads.
There are further implications should a yes vote win. Scotlands position in Europe. Which currency would they use? More worryingly for politicians and economists alike will the Welsh, Catalans, Basques follow suit which would be a mini revolution within Europe which as we know is in a big enough mess without the additional hassle!
Its a pain in the butt as I show in the start of today’s video how there is a perfect set up arriving on the Gbp/Cad but hey ho thats forex. Lets see if there is anything else thats safer to trade this week:
Its important to watch your calendars as there is importnat red flag spread throughout the week and be especially careful around the Fed announcement. Last week we had a lot of decent big gaps at the market open which could happen again, if so I show you here how I trade them: How To Trade Gaps

Our Goldrush Continues

Marc Walton on July 21, 2014 

Hey Gold Traders!!!

Heckofa’ slowwwwwww week last week!!!  Wowzers!!!  Didn’t catch a single entry with the Goldrush System at all!!  There will be weeks like that.  Of course, that doesn’t mean gold itself didn’t move.  We saw some wild swings actually including an over 200 pip single hourly candle!!  A plane was shot down and gold shot up.  This is always a worry when you trade an instrument as geo-politically sensitive as gold.  There is ALWAYS the spectre of a big move out of nowhere.  This is why I never suggest a big stop loss.  You can never really protect yourself against these things so it’s just better to trade with a smaller stop loss and understand that occasionally, even though you got the trade right, you are going to be knocked out with an “out of the blue” news move based on some “emergency” somewhere.  But, with the small stop loss, it’s relatively easy to recover something like 45 pips than it is to recover 150 pips from a subsequent win.
Looking forward to the week ahead, we are still in the weekly wedge we have focused on.  Recent price volatility has created a new 4-hour triangle we will now wait for to break before taking any trade.  I outline all this in the video below.  Keep an eye on a break of 1305 to the downside and 1320 to the upside.  As the week progresses, new information may come into light that will change our outlook so it is always a good idea to stay in tune with the forum for the most up-to-the-day information.  There is also the possibility that price continues to be volatile without giving us a solid entry and move.  This won’t last forever, and gold does not usually act this way for too long.  Stay patient and you will stay profitable.  Enjoy this week of trading!!!

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Omar’s Weekly Analysis: Much Less Scary Times Ahead

Marc Walton on June 8, 2014  

 

Haaaa!! Marc Finally had to deal with NFP week!!  I ALWAYS do that one right???  Of course, our fearless leader was able to successfully navigate that one and he beat the pants off of me in gains last week.  Of course, I have become rather gun shy with NFP week and forex myself and didn’t even entertain trades in the market after Wednesday.  OF COURSE, I got to hear from many of our members who profited nicely from the drop on Thursday.
Interestingly enough, as scary as last week was towards the end, it ended up forcing many pairs RIGHT BACK to where they were a week prior.  Yup, big moves, and ZERO breaks.  Pair after pair after pair.  So don’t let the price action fool you!!  We come into this week with in my opinion the door opening up to summer range trading, which is rather easy, can be very consistent and profitable as long as:

1. Don’t Shoot For The Stars:  Its a bit early to be talking about summertime markets but they do often meander from one area to another, hence the term “range” trading.  Because they are not making any new ground normally, we don’t see day after day after day of intense movement in one direction.  Rather than going for the 500 pipper, take your trade up to the next S/R and close it.  If it breaks, take another trade.  If it reverses, you have caught the most move you could.  The focus of summer ranges is flexibility and modest trades based on bounces from S/R to S/R.
2. Focus on Important Areas:  Oh how we have seen the 55 EMAs and 200 EMAs really, really come into play lately.  At the moment, it seems that the  200 EMA on many pairs is sitting at the bottom of trading ranges and some form of 55 EMA is a “mid-point” EMA on many pairs.  By understanding the overall market structure, it gives us a roadmap by which to trade through, and off of ranges.  Use these areas to trade around.
3. Confirmation? Or Better Entry?:  I have discussed this over and over, but decide whether you will simply place a forward order at the area, or whether you will look for confirmation.  Personally, during ranging times, I am more akin to choose the forward order rather than looking for the confirmation because of the more modest movement we see and numerous reversals we get during this market phase.
4. Plan the Trade(s) FIRST, Then Trade The Plan:  Map out all the possibilities that the market could do with our important areas.  Then come up with either a plan of action, OR a plan of “no-trade”.  Then all you have to do is watch the market play out and you are ready for whatever it does.  This will take the stress out of trading and the quicker moves won’t be as scary. 

Marcs Scary Weekly Analysis

I have posted my detailed analysis for the week ahead. 

Members do best if they do their own analysis before me, 

that way you learn to look for set ups for yourself. 

 

This week I do have some potential decent trades on my radar 

BUT the Euro is in for a VERY scary, rocky ride this week and 

needs to be handled with extreme care.

 

Here is my analysis and plan for the week ahead

 

 

Marcs Scary Weekly Analysis

Technicals Are In the Air — Forex Weekly Outlook

Marc Walton on May 25, 2014  

 

Hello FX Fans! When it comes to trading, there are always those who prefer fundamental analysis, and those who prefer technicals.  Although I do have the deepest respect for those who can make money using fundamentals in commodities, it seems far too slow paced for me.  Ironically, I always did very well using fundamentals to invest in equities before I ever became a trading junkie.  I just don’t want to wait to find out if I’m right or wrong, I want to know right away.
I want to make it clear right now, that technical analysis does not suggest “faster” trading in an of itself.  In fact, technical analysis can easily be used to trade monthly and yearly charts, I just don’t use it that way.  What I love about it, is ability to “zoom in” to what’s important RIGHT THIS SECOND, TODAY.  Trading has always captivated me in this way.  The more I learn about “big areas” and the occasion where we get to them and the market must decide its next move, just brings something special to the pursuit.
We often get wrapped up in the myopic focus on “making money” from this trade and that trade, and forget to savor what we are really doing.  We are getting our questions answered.  Did we make the right decision?  Can I hold myself to my own rules?  Did I miss something??  There are not many other avenues in life where you can test yourself on such a regular basis, have such a challenge doing it, and reward yourself so handsomely financially when the answer to the main one is “Yes”.  Enjoy the craft my friends.  The more you learn, the more you will earn.
On a more current and relevant note, the markets have been alive with technicals.  We are seeing most if not all pairs really respect EMAs, Trendlines, and horizontal S/R.  This makes our job as technical analysists that much easier.  The more conservative approach in this environment is to look for breaks of major areas, while the more experienced among you proficient in smaller-timframe trades, can trade as price meanders and bounces from area to area within the larger major range.  It seems likely that when pairs finally break these major areas we are hovering around, then the moves could be more significant.  With summer right around the corner though, I wouldn’t be surprised if we maintained a lot of ranges.  We shall see.

Turning Point?? A Brighter Look At The Forex Week Ahead

Marc Walton on May 11, 2014  

 

Wheew!!! After SOOO many slooooww weeks, and horrific daily ranges, we FINALLY saw some real moves towards the end of last week.  They say “all good things must come to an end”, but what “they” forget to mention (and is actually the more positive of the two sentiments) is that “all BAD things must come to an end” as well.
In trading, our goal is to make profits, with risking less than we intend to make.  With daily ranges in the low dozens, it is hard to place a protective stop, that we then look to double, triple or more in gains if we simply do not have the movement.  We have seen bollinger bands squeeze the life out of most pairs, along with sideways charts to boot.  Now, it seems the markets are “waking up” and bigger moves are found.  It may be a little too early to get excited considering we don’t have any real breakouts yet, but I’ll take these moves over the catatonic markets any day!!
Keep in mind, that we still need important areas to break along with continued bigger daily ranges to be back in “hog heaven” again.  That being said, almost every single pair we cover for analysis is creeping closer to very important areas.  Once/if they break, that will give us A LOT more confidence to hold our trades longer for bigger gains.  Even if they don’t break, the expanded daily ranges (assuming they continue) will provide us great trades to continue with the trends or ranges we are looking at.
Either way, bigger daily ranges will equal better opportunities.  We just have to be sure we are making good decisions, not trading because we simply have been in a bit of a “dry spell”.  I am happy to report that the markets look much better than before, and any good news is still good news.  Be careful, and let’s all hope this is a new phase of the market!