Marc Walton on January 13, 2013
Hi,
lots of big moves last week, especially the Yen pairs which I missed,
but member Mary (Trade spotting in the forum) continues to rack up 100′s
of pips. However, my Gbp/$ pull-back to 1.600 worked to the pip as did
the Aud, both taken from weekly charts. New member James asked me this
week how many pips should he try to aim for per week?When I trade intra day I set myself a nice low target of 20 pips per day/100 per week. If you can achieve 20 pips a day, consistently then a) your account will grow & b) if you add money to your account you will scale up and make more. With longer term moves then the goal is still to average 100 per week, but obviously the hope is to catch and hold on to a big move. The main message is do not set yourself unrealistic targets.
In my early days trading I would often beat my weekly target by mid week. Then got over confident.
Over traded and ended up with a losing week. Nowadays if I make 100 pips by Monday my philosophy is to go into ultra cautious mode. I stop trading intra day and simply look for conservative moves, which have multiple reasons & wherever possible with the trend.
In recent months I have been so busy trying to finish the new winners inner circle website that I am trading wherever possible from longer time frames. Try to do the same. Its obviously much less time consuming & less stressful. For the adrenalin junkies among you who just love to trade then you will find that this can cure your addiction. One trade a week is not very exciting, BUT it makes money & gives you loads of time to do other profitable things.
For those of you who took advantage of the winners circle new site (free to existing members) then we have an exciting guest presenter this month. Mentor Erich is a CTA registered futures trader (there are many similarities with forex) who pre Christmas grew his account from $25.000 to $47.000+ in just 49 days. Erich is starting another “profit run” tomorrow and he has kindly agreed to let us follow his trades whilst he spends the next 4 weeks showing us how he trades futures.
The Forex Week Ahead
Lots of pairs hit and stopped or rejected at major areas, emas and or double tops last week- The Gbp/$, Euro/$, Euro/Gbp & Aud to name a few. Therefore we need to wait and see whether these areas will break OR we get my preferred pullbacks. My best advice is only trade one pair at a time. if these areas break then all will probably do so. Equally if they do not. So a loss on one could be doubled or trebled. Yes I realise that works the same for wins but in my experience Murphy’s law tends to work against rather than for forex traders
In the last few weeks major news has been the catalyst for many of the big moves. Last week ECB President Draghi said things are getting better in the Eurozone and the markets decided this was great news and the Euro shot up. I warned last Sunday about ECB press conferences. Its all very silly and a few month ago similar comments had the same effect before a reality check saw the gains promptly fall back down again. You have been warned!
Euro/$: Weekly: Price slammed into and stopped at the weekly 200/monthly 55ema and its a double top. My preferred entry will be a pullback which on a weekly is all the way back down to 1.3030 which is the trend line, weekly 55ema and previous support. Swing trades look for clues to short here. Final option is if price breaks and closes above 1.3380 then consider an M2 break out pullback. If it does break out I will only trade it from a daily chart and I certainly would not trade it from any time frame smaller than 4 hour charts.
Intra day a more aggressive entry would be a pullback to 1.3300. If that breaks then 1.3170 was previous support & resistance
Chf: Interested to short at 0.9200. Counter trend half stake long at 0.9100
Gbp/$: Bounced to the pip off weekly 200ema. If 1.6200 breaks and closes above then consider M2 break out, pull back trades. I prefer a pull back and 1.6030 is the area for me.
Euro/Gbp: Stopped at weekly 200ema which was also previous major support and resistance, so either M2 break above there or I prefer a pull back either to 0.8225 (previous high) if that breaks then all the way back to 0.8150.
Aud: Continues to bounce off fibs for weekly moves I am now looking to long at 1.0400 and further possible shorts at 1.0570 (counter trend- half stake) . If everything else starts to break upwards I will leave the short alone and then look for possible longs after a break of 1.0600
Intra day 1.0500 is key
Cad: Only interested to short. Weekly trend line break means I need a pullback and 0.9900 is the preferred entry, BUT it might not get back there, so I will split the trade in half. I will place an order to short at 0.9850 (the trend line) and the other half just below 0.9900.
Inra day: 0.9900 is a major area with multiple reasons so watch there on 4 hour charts or above.
Yens: I explained last week that “I was too conservative and missed all the major moves. Long term member Mary (trade spotting in the forum) on the other hand made 100′s of pips last week. I need pull backs, Mary may have other, better ideas so check in the forum in Pierres corner for her take on all things yen.”
Mary did it again last week and made 250 pips just on one of the pairs. Use the forum, there are experienced members in there led by Pierre who are all happy to share tips and advice: Members Only Forum
The new Japanese government is determined to weaken its currency and has embarked upon a huge note printing exercise, therefore fundamentals are currently in favour of further moves. From a technical perspective they all look overbought and thus I am looking for pull backs.
The $/Yen to 86.00, but that is a long way, more aggressive entry would be 87.50
Euro/Yen: Prefer 115.00 but more aggressive is 117.00
Aud/Yen: 91.30
New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.6000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum
Pierre, Vassilis (Capsmart), Raa, Omar, Mary, and other experienced members will be available in the forum to give you a more up to the minute assessment & whether they see any potential trades lining up in the next few days. Many members tell me this is the best forex forum there is (no back biting & bitchiness, nor spam, that spoils most forums) and all members are happy to help new visitors. Its a great resource, USE It
To View the Video click http://t.co/A6b4oNOR