Hi,
hopefully you caught some of last weeks decent moves, I finally had
some follow through for a change. Choppy markets are ultra frustrating
to trade BUT quite a few of last weeks suggested trades worked extremely
well and almost to the pip on more than one.I had a few emails this week asking me about trading around the news. In my normal trading, when markets are trending I don’t pay too much attention to announcements, but I do not take trades a few hours before red flag news & I wait for the dust to settle afterwards. However in recent weeks I have been paying more attention because politicians and central bankers are using speeches to move price.
We saw ECB President talk the Euro up after Christmas and back down 10 days ago, which convinces me they have all conspired to keep the Euro/$ within a range. Both
economies are screwed and the debt mountain of both gets higher every hour & the printing presses are working around the clock, but to give some stability and avoid nasty things like Spain & Italys woes and the USA’s debt ceiling they are “talking the talk” which after all is their job.
However when you look at the Gbp/$ for example we have had technical indicators telling us for weeks that a big drop was on the radar, combined with a drip, drip of negative news including talk of a triple dip recession and the Gbp is now falling. Hopefully a new trend has been established. If that be the case then I will pay less attention to news. Similarly the Aud has broken a long term trend line which suggests a trip back down to parity or beyond. The good thing about recent markets is if you have managed to be profitable, or at the very least, not losing you should find trend trading to be a lot easier.
The Forex Week Ahead
Monday is Presidents Day, a bank holiday in the USA. Happy holidays to US members. Bank holidays are often very slow, especially when the US traders are out of the picture so be careful on Monday. Also Draghi speaks to the European parliament after the New York open so THAT could rock the Euro, but other than that it is not such a busy week for news nor speeches.
Gbp/$: Price broke and closed below 1.5700 once again, THE area on this pair. I showed in Wednesdays update why I shorted at 1.5680 (price was struggling and didnt quite hit 1.5690). I got lucky with the news and its now 150 pips in profit. I am still in a longer term trade at 1.5700 from the week before, when I showed you I had a 200+ pip stop. Same amount of money risked, just a smaller $ amount per pip. This was because I am hoping to catch a possible BIG move which could be up to 3000 pips, all explained in the video. If you missed this trade then 1.5680 is still the area and I will short once more if we get a pullback.
Aud: In last weeks video (I made a mistake in the write up – my apologies) I showed how 1.0350 /1.0380 was the area for me to short and price gave you multiple opportunities to do so Wednesday, Thursday & Friday! If price pulls back then same area again for me.
As ever watch gold and silver. We are at a critical area on both. For those interested in buying the physical metals I show in the video the areas I am looking at to buy more.
Euro/$: Price worked almost perfectly, to the pip for a long at 1.3300 and a short at 1.3500 and I didn’t take either : ( I was already in a Gbp short early in the week and I rarely trade on a Friday so missed the 60 pip bounce back up, but many of you made pips so well done. Intra day those are the same areas to look for clues on 4 hour charts.
A more conservative entry is to zoom out and look at the weekly charts where we have a trend line and 50% fib and previous support and resistance at 1.3200.
Chf: Mainly use for correlation, however if I am not in a Euro trade at the time I will be interested to short at 0.9300 and long at 0.9020 as explained in the video,
Euro/Gbp: I showed in Wednesdays video the clues that 0.8700 was a good place to short last week. Huge engulfing candle last week suggests a further fall. Now price has broken the all important 0.8520 I am interested to short there.
Euro/Yen: Same as last week on all the yens. The presumption that the G20 meeting would put pressure on Japan to stop weakening their currency did’t materialise so same again this week for me: Lots of technical clues and political reasons for the yens to pull back this week. Macd divergence, stochastics, weekly inside bar candle all suggest at least a pull back. 120.75 is my entry point if it does.
In January I missed lots of the big yen moves (unlike Mary in the forum and a few others who caught 1000′s) but I was finally rewarded for my patience & discipline with a very big trade, same philosophy again. If price comes to me I will take teh trade, if it doesn’t I will NOT go chasing it.
Aud/Yen: 0.9500 was & remains the area
$/Yen: I need a bigger pullback and 0.9020 is the spot for me.
Cad: I was too greedy last week. I longed at 0.9985 (10 above my suggestion of 0.9975). Missed the entry by 12 pips and it went 70+
The more logical entry at 1.000 is so obvious now and that is where I will long this week.New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.6000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum
Pierre, Vassilis (Capsmart), Raa, Omar, Mary, and other experienced members will be available in the forum to give you a more up to the minute assessment & whether they see any potential trades lining up in the next few days. Many members tell me this is the best forex forum there is (no back biting & bitchiness, nor spam, that spoils most forums) and all members are happy to help new visitors. Its a great resource, USE IT: Forex Forum
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