The Gbp/$ trade that I started to plan at the beginning of
February is currently + 500 pips and could have a lot further to fall to
that dream target of 3000 pips. In Wednesdays update I explained how I
am managing the trade by trailing my stop above recent daily pull backs
and highs. The dilemma now for all of us that are in this trade is that
we don’t want to lose a 500+ pip win but on the other hand miss out on a
potential further 2500 pip drop! I show at the start of today’s video
how I intend to manage these trades.
Technically 1.5700 was key n this pair as it was a monthly trend line that went back to 2008. Fundamentally there has been an almost constant drip, drip of negative Gbp news, further compounded by a disagreement between Bank Of England voters, Moody’s downgraded the UK on Friday AND it is strongly rumoured that George Soros is shorting the Gbp.
Back in 1992 Soros made an estimated $1.1 Billion shorting the Gbp.
Last year
it is thought he did the same shorting the Yen and the Gbp DOES like ripe for it.
Even if it is not true that Soros is involved, the mere perception
that he could be is likely to have others thinking of doing the same.
The difficulty now is if you missed the move, where do you look to get in. Simply diving in now usually ends in disaster, so ideally a pull back is what is needed, all explained in the Video.
Gold & silver have broken major support/trend lines and I show in the video the areas where I am looking to buy more. You do need a strong stomach when holding precious metals, but whereas the inexperienced investor will currently beginning to panic and consider selling, teh seasoned investor is rubbing his hands at the chance of picking up a bargain
If they do continue to fall then the Aud usually follows. The correlation has not been as strong recently but the trends usually go the same way.
Patience & Discipline & Accepting Losses
I know I go on about this subject BUT the Aud/Yen trade proved the point again last week. I have been waiting for 3 weeks for this entry. I missed it by a fraction of a pip the week before which was a sickener but was finally rewards with a 120+ pip move, simply by waiting for price to come to me.
I had the continuation move on the Gbp & wins on the Aud & Aud/Yen, but losses on the Cad, Euro/Gbp and a – 2 pips loss on a chf trade. Net result was I had a very good week, but I had 2 wins and 2 losses & a break even – I am not counting 2 pips
(excluding the Gbp trades). Losing is normal in trading any commodity.
The secret clearly is in aiming for decent risk reward ratios &
trying to hang on to the bigger moves.
The other thing to get used to is if you are not sure about a pair or trade, walk away. RUN away if need be.
Do not try to force trades that are not there. For example this week I really have no idea about the Euro, Euro/Gbp and the Cad. What am I going to do? Nothing. The Italian elections are taking place at the moment and the result could rock the Euro & technically I am unsure. Do NOT go looking for trouble. Try find something better elsewhere. If you can’t then go away for a few days.
The Forex Week Ahead
Gbp/$: Still have my 2 short trades running from 1.5700. I show in the video how I intend to manage them. If you missed the move or want to add to your position then a pull back is best. First area to consider is 1.5230 which wa smajor support & I will definitely re enter if price bounces to 1.5400. If the Soros rumours are true then price may simply drop like a stone at the open. You could consider an entry 15 pips below Thursday’s low at 1.5130 but its higher risk
Aud: For many months we enjoyed multiple winning trades simply from bounces between 61.8% & 78.6% weekly fibs. Price broke down but now appears to be bouncing between 50% & 61.8%. I will prefer to short once more at 1.0340 and half stake, counter trend longs at 1.0230
As ever watch gold and silver. For those interested in buying the physical metals I show in the video the areas I am looking at to buy more.
Euro/$:Technically not sure. Italian elections mean I am completely unsure. Only things I will be interested in is if we see major moves, then a half stake long at 1.2900 and a short at 1.3500 but they seem a long way away at the moment
Chf: I shorted at 0.9300 last week but then cancelled the trade. I will leave now due to its correlation with the Euro.
Euro/Gbp: Neutral - this is “expert speak” for I have no idea -Same reason I am leaving the Euro for now.
Euro/Yen: Still waiting for pull back to 120.75 though if monthly candle closes same as now we could be on for a big swing back down.
Aud/Yen: 0.9500 worked last week, same again.
$/Yen: I need a bigger pullback and 0.9020 is the spot for me. Intraday traders, consider a long at 92.00
Cad: NO idea. Walking away. Its at a MAJOR make your mind up point, with no real clue either way. If it dropped to 1.000 I will be interested to long, but no way in current position.
New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.6000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum
Pierre, Vassilis (Capsmart), Raa, Omar, Mary, and other experienced members will be available in the forum to give you a more up to the minute assessment & whether they see any potential trades lining up in the next few days. Many members tell me this is the best forex forum there is (no back biting & bitchiness, nor spam, that spoils most forums) and all members are happy to help new visitors. Its a great resource, USE IT: Forex Forum
To View the click on the link http://youtu.be/pwoCfyTBVCI
Technically 1.5700 was key n this pair as it was a monthly trend line that went back to 2008. Fundamentally there has been an almost constant drip, drip of negative Gbp news, further compounded by a disagreement between Bank Of England voters, Moody’s downgraded the UK on Friday AND it is strongly rumoured that George Soros is shorting the Gbp.
Back in 1992 Soros made an estimated $1.1 Billion shorting the Gbp.
Last year
it is thought he did the same shorting the Yen and the Gbp DOES like ripe for it.
Even if it is not true that Soros is involved, the mere perception
that he could be is likely to have others thinking of doing the same.The difficulty now is if you missed the move, where do you look to get in. Simply diving in now usually ends in disaster, so ideally a pull back is what is needed, all explained in the Video.
Gold & silver have broken major support/trend lines and I show in the video the areas where I am looking to buy more. You do need a strong stomach when holding precious metals, but whereas the inexperienced investor will currently beginning to panic and consider selling, teh seasoned investor is rubbing his hands at the chance of picking up a bargain
If they do continue to fall then the Aud usually follows. The correlation has not been as strong recently but the trends usually go the same way.
Patience & Discipline & Accepting Losses
I know I go on about this subject BUT the Aud/Yen trade proved the point again last week. I have been waiting for 3 weeks for this entry. I missed it by a fraction of a pip the week before which was a sickener but was finally rewards with a 120+ pip move, simply by waiting for price to come to me.
I had the continuation move on the Gbp & wins on the Aud & Aud/Yen, but losses on the Cad, Euro/Gbp and a – 2 pips loss on a chf trade. Net result was I had a very good week, but I had 2 wins and 2 losses & a break even – I am not counting 2 pips
(excluding the Gbp trades). Losing is normal in trading any commodity.
The secret clearly is in aiming for decent risk reward ratios &
trying to hang on to the bigger moves.The other thing to get used to is if you are not sure about a pair or trade, walk away. RUN away if need be.
Do not try to force trades that are not there. For example this week I really have no idea about the Euro, Euro/Gbp and the Cad. What am I going to do? Nothing. The Italian elections are taking place at the moment and the result could rock the Euro & technically I am unsure. Do NOT go looking for trouble. Try find something better elsewhere. If you can’t then go away for a few days.
The Forex Week Ahead
Gbp/$: Still have my 2 short trades running from 1.5700. I show in the video how I intend to manage them. If you missed the move or want to add to your position then a pull back is best. First area to consider is 1.5230 which wa smajor support & I will definitely re enter if price bounces to 1.5400. If the Soros rumours are true then price may simply drop like a stone at the open. You could consider an entry 15 pips below Thursday’s low at 1.5130 but its higher risk
Aud: For many months we enjoyed multiple winning trades simply from bounces between 61.8% & 78.6% weekly fibs. Price broke down but now appears to be bouncing between 50% & 61.8%. I will prefer to short once more at 1.0340 and half stake, counter trend longs at 1.0230
As ever watch gold and silver. For those interested in buying the physical metals I show in the video the areas I am looking at to buy more.
Euro/$:Technically not sure. Italian elections mean I am completely unsure. Only things I will be interested in is if we see major moves, then a half stake long at 1.2900 and a short at 1.3500 but they seem a long way away at the moment
Chf: I shorted at 0.9300 last week but then cancelled the trade. I will leave now due to its correlation with the Euro.
Euro/Gbp: Neutral - this is “expert speak” for I have no idea
-Same reason I am leaving the Euro for now.Euro/Yen: Still waiting for pull back to 120.75 though if monthly candle closes same as now we could be on for a big swing back down.
Aud/Yen: 0.9500 worked last week, same again.
$/Yen: I need a bigger pullback and 0.9020 is the spot for me. Intraday traders, consider a long at 92.00
Cad: NO idea. Walking away. Its at a MAJOR make your mind up point, with no real clue either way. If it dropped to 1.000 I will be interested to long, but no way in current position.
New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.6000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum
Pierre, Vassilis (Capsmart), Raa, Omar, Mary, and other experienced members will be available in the forum to give you a more up to the minute assessment & whether they see any potential trades lining up in the next few days. Many members tell me this is the best forex forum there is (no back biting & bitchiness, nor spam, that spoils most forums) and all members are happy to help new visitors. Its a great resource, USE IT: Forex Forum
To View the click on the link http://youtu.be/pwoCfyTBVCI