Hi, long term member Peter is currently in profit of over $6000 from the recent Gbp/$ short, but understandably
starting to get a little anxious. Overall we are hoping for a 3000 pip
move on this pair which would give him a $30.000 profit BUT this being
forex the concern is that price could simply bounce back up and lose.I know many of you caught this move, I show you at the start of this weeks video how I intend to take some of profit off and how I am moving my stops to try protect the rest but still give the trade room to “breathe.”
In recent weeks many of you have managed to catch some of the big yen moves as well as the Gbp. Getting out too early has always been my biggest weakness, Dean on the other hand just places a trade and leaves it to run. He gets taken out more often but only needs one or two decent trades a month to be in profit.
Many of the potential trades I am looking at this week are from daily charts. You do not have to be sat trading all day.
Its Nfp week and a huge amount of red flag news for all pairs this week and the Gbp & Euro are at MAJOR areas, so what do we do for the week ahead? If price is going to react anywhere then 1.50 & 1.300 are the logical areas. Last Sunday saw some big gaps at the market open on many pairs. I showed in Wednesdays update how you can trade these moves and all won last week.
I also showed in the update why I favoured the chf over the Euro and why 0.9350 looked good for an M2 long. It worked to the pip which was very satisfying. On the other hand I longed the Aud/Yen once more at 0.9500 from a forward order placed at the market open. I show in the video how you could have avoided this had you been trading from 4 hour charts.
My goal is to trade from daily charts wherever possible. I only go down to 4 hour charts if I need confirmation or I can not see anything on the dailys. In my early days I used to sit and trade for up to 12 hours on 15 minute charts, that was the worst mistake I ever made.
Learn to zoom out. You have much more time to plan and less emotion.
The Forex Week Ahead
We are at crucial areas for the Gbp & Euro particularly. If the $ is going to take a breather or even pull back then that will affect all pairs. For instance I am very interested to short the Aud, but if the Gbp & Euro bounce back up I will wait and see if its temporary $ weakness before taking any trades versus the $USA
I will mainly trade from daily candle closes this week to try avoid “fake outs”
Gbp/$: Same as last week in many ways, however if the Gbp is going to bounce anywhere then 1.500 is the logical place. I will not long there as its akin to catching a falling knife. If it breaks and CLOSES below there on a daily chart then consider a M2 short
Still have my 2 short trades running from 1.5700. I show in the video how I intend to manage them. If you missed the move or want to add to your position then a pull back is best. First area to consider is 1.5230 which was major support & I will definitely re enter if price bounces to 1.5400.
Aud: If the Euro & Gbp continue to drop and the Aud closes below 1.0200 on a daily I will short, however I still prefer a pull back to 1.0340.
As ever also watch gold and silver.
Euro/$:Left it alone last week and still prefer the Chf, but if its going to bounce then 1.300 is the first area. I may counter trend long at 1.2900 as explained in the video. Also watch 1.3200 for a short if it does bounce up.
Chf: Worked perfectly on a daily chart as per Wednesdays update. If it pulls back down to 0.9350 again I will do so once more.
Euro/Gbp: Still messy. Stuck at a major upper trend line so look for clues to short there. More conservative entires are break and close above the trend line which I will take from daily candle close or a pull back to 0.8500
Euro/Yen: Pulled back further than hoped for last week, however I explained I wasn’t touching any Euro pairs. The other important lesson here is that you should only ever be in one yen trade at a time. I will be interested to long at 119.00 (I said 120 in the video – that was a mistake)
Aud/Yen: Failed last week at 0.9500 although I show in video if you had traded from 4 hour charts you could have avoided it. Prefer Aud this week.
$/Yen: I need a bigger pullback and 0.9020 is still the spot for me and I show in teh video why we have those favoured “multiple reasons”
Cad: Price has broken and closed above a long term trend line BUT the weekly candle is bearish & price is well outside the bollinger bands. This pair is often tricky to trade as it has nasty swings. Most conservative entry is if price pulls all the way back to 1.000 but look for clues around 1.0200 for a move in either direction.
New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.6000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum
Pierre, Vassilis (Capsmart), Raa, Omar, Mary, and other experienced members will be available in the forum to give you a more up to the minute assessment & whether they see any potential trades lining up in the next few days. Many members tell me this is the best forex forum there is (no back biting & bitchiness, nor spam, that spoils most forums) and all members are happy to help new visitors. Its a great resource, USE IT: Forex Forum
To View the Video, click on the http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81FvJuvoaIA