Marc Walton on May 5, 2013
Hi,
some decent trades last week taken simply from my weekly analysis. What
may have seemed like a difficult week on shorter time frames (it was)
was MUCH clearer if you followed my lead and zoomed out to daily and
weekly charts. I showed in last weeks extra video : How I Do My Analysis the
steps I take on a Sunday to plan the trades for the week ahead. I then
place “A” list trades at the market open (having checked first that
there are no gaps) and then I simply “tweak” my analysis during the week
and I am particularly careful when big news is due.The Euro rate decision and NFP both gave clear examples of why I do not take trades around red flag, major news.
This week we have a bank holiday in the UK on Monday which means a substantial number of traders will be missing from London, so be especially careful with all Gbp potential trades. Later in the week there is British interest rate news, you saw the 100+ pip spike on the Euro last week? THATS why I recommend you do not take trades a few hours before such releases. Move stops to entry or closer on open trades. Then wait for the dust to settle after the news.
Thursday is a Eurozone Bank holiday and Friday is a no trade for me as its the start of a week end of G7 meetings. Meetings and speeches by politicians can also rock the market. My philosophy is that I don’t need to go looking for trouble, therefore walk away.
I had an email from new member, Geoff last week, who was frustrated at missing the Euro/Gbp short at 0.8500. I explain in EVERY post that I place my short orders 10 pips below and longs, 10 pips above, to avoid exactly this scenario. Often price will come within a couple of pips of an entry, miss and then go 100′s! Also you will see instances like last weeks Cad long at 1.0500. Price hit it to the pip BUT your order would not have been filled because of the spread.
Forex Week Ahead
Lots of news and Bank holidays once more and NFP news was much better than expected when taking into account the previous months revision. Therefore Asian traders have their first chance to trade, will they go for more $ strength as per the beginning of last week? Personally I will be interested to see if there are any gaps at the market open. If you are new, here is how I trade gaps: Marcs Gap Trading Strategy
Euro/$: Still too messy for me. Lots of nasty spikes on shorter time frames, once again I am not interested in smaller time frames this week. Longer term charts I am interested to short if price gets up to 1.3300. If we see a lot of $ strength an dthe Euro drops then I will look for clues on 4 hour charts for a half stake bounce back up at 1.2900.
I will not trade after Wednesday due to Thursday’s Euro Bank Holiday and Fridays G7 meetings.
Gbp/$: 1.5790 is still my preferred entry on this pair, for multiple reasons as explained in the video. I will also look to long if price pulls back to 1.5370
Intra day then I will look for clues to short at 1.56800. If price is static on Monday (due to the Bank Holiday) then I will also be closely watching 1.5620. Its daily 78.6% fib as well as 200ema so multiple reasons. I will not trade around Thursdays interest rate news.
Euro/Gbp: I said last week ” ….price crashed through major support at 0.8500 after positive UK news and negative Spanish. Standard M2 plan is to short there if price pulls back.” It worked to the pip for 90 pips profit, same area this week. Other option is if price breaks and closes below the double bottom at 0.8390 look for a candle close and pull back to further short.
Chf: In recent months 0.9500 has been major resistance and that is my preferred area for the week, however 0.9400 has also been important and price stopped to the pip there after Fridays NFP surge, so I will watch there on 4 hour charts for intra day opportunities.
Final option, if price drops is an M2 break and close below 0.9200
Aud: Continues to bounce off weekly 1.2200 so I will half stake long there or short at 1.0570
Intraday: I said last week “Pulled back almost to the pip to my suggested entry last week at 1.0340. That is still a major area for me to want to short.” Then in the forum I posted an update early in the week to be cautious as there was $USA strength all round. 1.0380 was the next major line in the sand we have had in place for months. Price stalled there for 24 hours with lots of candle stick clues on the 4 hour set up and price fell 150 pips. Intra day that is the same area for me.
Eventually price will break the low, i fit does I will only trade it from daily candle closes with an M2 break below 1.01901.0190
Yens: Some nasty spikes on all Yens in recent weeks make me wary. I will only take one Yen trade at a time.
Aud/Yen: Nasty spike last few weeks, watch 100.00 for a bounce from 4 hour charts but my preferred “A” trade is a long at 97.40. Later in the week this may be more attractive as the 55ema nears the area (explained in the video)
Euro/Yen:Murphy’s law, this was the pair I was most wary with last week and it worked to the pip
Same as Above. 127.00 is the zone, but not the strongest support – If the bollinger closes again will give more confidence.$/Yen: I am only interested to long, with the trend but still prefer a pullback. Lots of clues of further pull backs. My main area to long is 96.50. If that trade loses and breaks lower, I will take again at 94.50. The Japanese have made no secret of their intentions to weaken the yen we could be on for 1000′s of pips of upwards movement in the coming months.
Final option: if price breaks and closes above 100.00 I will long if we get a pull back. Further options are a half stake, counter trend short at 100.00.
Cad: Still messy but 1.020 is my preferred entry once more. Its the psych level/parity. Strong previous support & resistance. 61.8% fib and the weekly 55ema – did someone mention multiple reasons!
Last week you may have caught half of this trade, I explained “The problem is it may only get as low as the weekly 55ema around 1.0050 so I will split the trade in half.” Intraday that area is still of interest for a half stake long, explained in the video.
New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.6000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum
Pierre, Vassilis (Capsmart), Raa, Omar, Mary, and other experienced members will be available in the forum to give you a more up to the minute assessment & whether they see any potential trades lining up in the next few days. Many members tell me this is the best forex forum there is (no back biting & bitchiness, nor spam, that spoils most forums) and all members are happy to help new visitors. Its a great resource, USE IT: Forex Forum