Marc Walton on June 16, 2013
Hi,
a couple of decent trades from last Sunday’s analysis meant I could
have left the charts alone from Tuesday. My game plan is to do my
detailed studies and analysis on a Sunday. Choose the best potential
trades for forward order, then be at my charts when the markets open for
two reasons:- Make sure nothing catastrophic has happened over the weekend to ruin my analysis
- Look for potential gap trades
I have shown you how I trade gaps on numerous occasions and the Aud was a “text book” entry. Within a matter of hours the trade was 50+ pips in profit. If you are new, this is my gap trading strategy: CLICK HERE
At the market open I also place forward orders for my best potential trades and go to bed. Sometimes I will wait until after the London open before placing forward orders and you have to pay attention to major scheduled news announcements. For example this coming week there is the FOMC statement that could really rock the markets. Ninety nine times out of a 100 I will cancel orders until after the news release, however, occasionally I might leave an order in place. I show in today’s video that if the Cad price stays where it is currently I will be tempted to leave my forward order in place, its risky, but I explain my reasons in the video.
Also my suggested “spookily accurate” :) short at 98.60 on the $/Yen worked perfectly on Monday and eventually gave almost 500 pips profit. I got out + 130, when you look at the charts now its obvious I should have stayed in BUT you cant feed your family on pips. Price had moved more than a days range very quickly so I feared pullbacks and even a reversal. The net result was by Tuesday I could have been finished for the week.
Forex Week Ahead
There are G8 meetings on Monday and Tuesday where the worlds biggest ego’s are all assembled in one place ( G8 “ Gee I am great, look at me”). There is always the danger that one of these dudes will say something unexpected which could rock the markets and the BIG news announcement this week is likely to be the FOMC statement and press conference. The markets are still very jittery and looking for direction and Bernanke and his crew teased about cutting QE, so any hint of that WILL rock all $USA pairs. If there is extraordinary news then the following analysis may need to go in the bin and be re assessed on Wednesday, once the dust settles.
Intervention: I only trade one Yen pair at a time and this week even more so than usual. There are rumours that the Bank of Japan may intervene to weaken their currency, they have done it before and I show in the video what effect this can have & why you need to be extra careful at the moment.
Gbp/$: Price broke and closed above a weekly trend line and the 55ema both of which are significant and it does look bullish. I will long if price pulls back to 1.5620 with my stop below the daily 200ema. If price breaks there and drops alarmingly then I am still interested to long at 1.5370 where there is a 50% fib, previous support & resistance, 55/34 emas. Counter trend there is a possible swing trade short at 1.5800
Euro/$: It looks bullish but I just have a feeling that we will see a pull back or even the start of a reversal here. Fundamentally: There has been talk at the weekend that the biggest German bank is vastly undercapitalized and Spains debt has surged quicker and higher than ever. Either of these or negative G8 statements could start a run back down.
Technically: Price closed fractionally above the weekly 55ema but I prefer to long the Gbp/$ this week. A counter trend swing back down is more interesting. If price CLOSES below 1.3300 on the 4 hour I will short on a pullback, risking only half stake as its counter trend.
Final option if we get a BIG pullback is a long at 1.3100.
Euro/Gbp: Messy, nasty spikes and whip saws in recent weeks. This is usually one of my preferred pairs and has fairly gentle, predictable moves, but not at the moment. Best advice is leave it alone. The only thing I may be interested in is a short below 0.8470 but there is not much room before price will hit the daily 200ema and 78.6% fib, definitely NOT one to place a forward order.
Chf: Price broke and closed below 0.9330 which is a weekly 55ema and a weekly trend line that goes back to the beginning of the year, so significant. Look for a pull back to short at 0.9330 , but also watch 0.9300 as price often stops at whole numbers on the Chf
If we see a major pullback after FOMC then a short at 0.9600 will be in order for me.
Aud: I said last week “Weak Chinese news at the weekend means this could gap at the open”. That was an easy trade, this week is more tricky. 0.9600 is major support and resistance but has regularly been pierced. 0.9660 seems a better entry and has held more often. Major moves back up will still see me only wanting to short and 0.9800 and 1.000.
Aud/Yen: Leaving alone. I prefer the Euro/Yen this week. If we see a BIG drop then I will long at 85.00 but will be an extra big move so doubt it will happen this week.
Euro/Yen: Price broke and closed below a weekly trend line that goes back to November. Traders all over the world will have seen this and therefore a pull back to 1.2800 which is the trend line and daily 55ema is where I will place my forward order to short.
$/Yen: In a clear uptrend on the weekly, but is this a pull back or a reversal? The BoJ want their currency weakened and may intervene which will see this pair rocket, the problem is where to enter? I prefer the Euro/yen this week, but if price drifts back up as far as 98.60 I will short it BUT this pair may react more than most to FOMC news so NOT to be traded then.
Cad: I am interested to long this pair. I explain in the video how I will split my trade in half (scale in) to this one. I will place half the order to long at 1.0100 and the second part at 1.0020 all explained in the video.
New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.5000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum
Pierre, Vassilis (Capsmart), Raa, Omar, Mary, and other experienced members will be available in the forum to give you a more up to the minute assessment & whether they see any potential trades lining up in the next few days. Many members tell me this is the best forex forum there is (no back biting & bitchiness, nor spam, that spoils most forums) and all members are happy to help new visitors. Its a great resource, USE IT: Forex Forum
To view the video click here http://youtu.be/zHIPSBr3Yf0