Marc Walton on June 30, 2013
Hi, I am pleased to announce that ex hedge fund trader, Fotis, has
kindly agreed to give up some of his time and become a permanent member
of the team. We have had some awesome feedback from members and his
insight into world economics and how they affect all financial assets,
including forex are invaluable. We will create a separate section for
him where he can explain the workings of the world financial systems in
more detail. Fotis will also show you how he takes this information and
uses it to build his personal portfolio, trading forex, bonds, etfs,
derivatives and stocks.I am also grateful to long term member and forum leader Vassilis who has kindly offered to post his weekly STT analysis (with a twist). Vassilis likes to keep things simple and has spent the last year or more trading simply from price action, so if you are looking for a simple strategy then check in with him on Monday’s. Vassilis (capsmart in the forum) is usually in the forum most days so along with Pierre you have 2 traders and mentors that you can check in with if you have any questions, or need tips and advice.
Last Week
I explained in last Sundays write up that I believed it would be difficult to trade from daily charts and that I was going to move down to 4 hour. There were a lot of winning trades last week IF you got your stops to entry after 20/25 pips (15 on the Euro/Gbp) and I showed in Wednesdays update that I would short the Gbp/$ if it broke 1.5400 and pulled back. This was based on price action and the simple channel trades I showed you in recent weeks. It did and that trade alone went 200 pips!
I also show at the start of todays video how there were winning trades on a number of other pairs.
Forex Week Ahead
This is likely to be the most difficult weeks trading of the year so far. We have NFP Friday which I never trade, but when you add in the fact that its the 4th July (Happy holiday to USA members) where many traders will be absent from the markets and its also the ECB interest rate news and press conference which you have seen in recent months can really rock the markets, then my plan for the week is to be finished trading for the week by Wednesday at the very latest.
Last week price was sluggish on many pairs earlier in the week. News has been the catalyst for most moves recently and this week we have a ton of it, so it is vital that you pay attention to those calendars. Personally I use Forex Factory for announcements, you need to pay particular attention to “red flag” news.
This is also the end of the month so make sure you check out the monthly charts before analysing smaller time frames.
I will trade mainly from 4 hour charts this week and not place many forward orders at the market open.
Gbp/$: Bearish on the monthly. I am interested to short primarily around 1.5400 once more, but 1.5330 was also major support and resistance. I will continue to watch the 4 hour channel as explained in the video. If price simply continues to drop I will be interested to take a counter trend long (half stake as its against the trend) at 1.500
Euro/$: Bearish on monthly. We could be on for an 800 pip move here as the weekly Head and shoulders is still in play. As ever the issue is where to enter. No forward orders for me. Price stopped teasingly at 1.3000 so I will look for a pullback/channel entry preferably to 1.3100, you might want to look for clues around 1.3060 as well, but the risk reward isn’t good enough for me. If price simply continues to fall then a break and close below 1.3000 will see me short on a pull back. Other options if you miss all that and it’s a big drop then 1.2800 is key. A break and close below there will signal a Head & Shoulders entry as explained in the video.
Euro/Gbp: Continues to bounce between 0.8470 and 0.8590 I will trade there. If price breaks either area then we look for a clear break out and pullback, only on a candle close (safer on a daily candle)
Chf: Longer term I am interested to short at 0.9600. Its now getting messy and Bollinger bands are closing on the daily which suggests liquidity is drying up. If price falls from current position I will short at 0.9360 on a pullback ONLY if the daily candle clearly closes below that area.
Aud: Continues to drop like a stone. I am interested to short at 0.9400 and even a higher risk bounce back up from the major pyshological level of 0.900. This will obviously be counter trend so I will only risk half my usual stake. There is a lot of Aussie news this week, so it depends whether new Prime Minister Rudd wants price to bounce back up or not. Do not trade it around any of the news releases.
Aud/Yen: Very messy, picture is unclear to me right now so I will leave this alone unless we see a BIG drop then I will place a forward order to long at 85.00 but will be an extra big move so doubt it will happen this week.
Euro/Yen: I am not keen on any Yens at the moment but 128.00 remains key on this pair. The problem has been the number of nasty spikes in recent weeks. I would only trade form daily candle closes. Another option is a counter trend short if price gets up to 131.00
$/Yen: Price broke and closed above 98.60 so a pull back there to long is an option or even a short if price breaks back down. The problem then is that the daily 55ema is just below. Price also struggled at 99.80 last time we got to this area so there are lots of “areas of interest” but I will leave alone.
Cad: I am interested to long this pair. Missed my entry by 12 pips last week.
The monthly candle has broken the 55ema for the first time since May 2009 and I show in the video how important this ema has been since 1996!! I will place a forward order to long at 1.0400 BUT we need to watch the news carefully. This could be the start of a very big move so I will leave the trade to run.
New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.5000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum
Pierre, Vassilis (Capsmart), Raa, Omar, Mary, and other experienced members will be available in the forum to give you a more up to the minute assessment & whether they see any potential trades lining up in the next few days. Many members tell me this is the best forex forum there is (no back biting & bitchiness, nor spam, that spoils most forums) and all members are happy to help new visitors. Its a great resource, USE IT: Forex Forum