Marc’s Weekly Forex Analysis

Marc Walton on January 20, 2013 

Hi, Martin Luther King day in the USA on Monday is usually the time when markets get back to some kind of normality. The rest of the big traders return after the Christmas break, therefore liquidity and volatility should pick up and so should trends.
Last week was a horrible on a personal note. It started with a bad cold, I dislocated my shoulder on Wednesday coaching football and ended up with a losing week at forex.
All in all I should have stayed in bed Anyway if bad things come in 3′s then things can now only get better & lets hope that MLK day is the sign! I recommend that you do not trade on Monday due to the public holiday AND there is a Eurozone meeting at which finance ministers will no doubt try to talk the Euro back down again.

There are further meetings throughout the week as well as a lot of red flag news, so watch calendars carefully. Personally I will wait and see how the market reacts after the London open on Tuesday morning, just in case there is a “what the **** “… moment as the big traders jump back into the markets.
Last week was very messy. Major areas such as 1.6000 on the Gbp/$ were simply ignored, therefore I continue to look at longer time frames for bigger pull backs. The bets way to trade is with the trend where ever possible, but over the holiday period we learned to adapt and play bounces, but lets hope some clear trends resume.
Euro/$: I need a pullback. Hopefully my cautionary note last week kept you from longing in its current position, I need a pullback and 1.3030 is the area for me. Its a major weekly trend line that goes back to July 2012, just above MAJOR support of 1.300 and the weekly 55ema is rolling over as support in the same area.
Gbp/$ Price fell straight through my last weeks entry point of 1.6000 so where to next? I will short if price pulls back to 1.6000. If you are trading intraday also look around the monthly 55ema at 1.5930 area for clues.  The far more conservative trade is to zoom out to monthly charts and see why 1.5700 is so important for a potential long (see video).
Chf: I usually trade the Euro and simply use this pair for correlation, however in recent months the Chf has been far more reliable until last week Its currently very messy although last weeks candle was very bullish and a NIMY bollinger at 0.9500 so I will look for clues on a 4 hour chart to short if price gets that high
Euro/Gbp: Did a perfect M2 break out pull back last week from the weekly 200ema at 0.8280 so I will look for longs there.
Aud: 85% win ratio on this pair in the last 4 months, simply trading from weekly fibs/charts. Worked again last week although I did caution in Wednesdays update about gold & silver. Keep your eye on the metals if they do break upwards then the Aud is likely to follow, but until or unless it does I continue to look to short at 1.5700 and long at 1.0430.
If you are trading intra day then 1.0500 is again key, so look for bounces back up or M2 shorts if it breaks.
Cad: Whip sawed back up last week and currently looks bullish BUT 1.000 is key on this pair and I will look to short there once more.
Yens: The new Japanese Prime Minister and BoJ have stated their intention to weaken their currency and they are doing so to great effect, the only question is where will it stop? I need a pullback on any/all yen pairs. Until price does as I am hoping then I will simply leave it alone. Chasing after price when it is already hurtling away from you is not a good idea.
$/Yen: 87.50
Euro/Yen: 117.00
Aud/Yen 91.00
New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.6000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum
Pierre, Vassilis (Capsmart), Raa, Omar, Mary, and other experienced members will be available in the forum to give you a more up to the minute assessment & whether they see any potential trades lining up in the next few days. Many members tell me this is the best forex forum there is (no back biting & bitchiness, nor spam, that spoils most forums) and all members are happy to help new visitors. Its a great resource, USE IT: Forex Forum