Marc Walton on January 27, 2013
I explained last week that even though I had been kicking myself for
missing all the huge yen moves it is important to be patient,
disciplined and wait for price to come back to the chosen area.If, like me you had missed those moves and seen experienced members in the forum rack up 1000’s of pips, then it was a frustrating time BUT if you followed the doctrine last week you had the chance to finally collect your reward. My suggested entry at 117.00 on the Euro/Yen is currently 500 pips in profit. That’s one trade giving more than a months profit!
I have also explained in great detail about zooming out to longer time frames and particularly for the Aud which gave decent profits yet again last week and has done for many, many months. This pair alone has given 1000’s of pips profit trading from predictable areas that I have flagged repeatedly in my weekend analysis. It can’t go on forever but until price breaks then I will continue to trade it from my weekly analysis.
Having said that not everything went to plan so its just as well I caught a few decent, bigger moves. The cad 1.000/ weekly 55ema has given around 20 winning weekly trades over the last few years with only a few losers. Unfortunately last week was one of them.
Forex Week Ahead
Price appears to be at extremes on many pairs and I continue to look for pull backs wherever possible. My goal this year is to trade wherever possible from my weekly analysis. Place as few trades as possible and walk away. I don’t get a kick out of sitting staring at charts all day and that is a good thing.
Its NFP week so BIG news building to NFP Friday, as ever I aim to be out of the markets no later than Thursday lunch time. Its important to tip toe around the red flag news, especially Wednesdays ADP non farm jobs news and the FOMC statement.
Aud: Not only worked on the weekly analysis once more, 1.0500 also worked intraday. There were a lot of pips here last week from the bounces, I will continue to trade the same areas. Eventually it will break so as ever its not guaranteed, but probability is in its favour.
Shorts at 1.0570 and longs at current position. If it drops at the market open then look at 1.0370 for bounce back up. If either of these areas do break then we wait for clear break outs and M2 pullbacks. I would only trade a break out from daily charts.
Intra day 1.0500 continues to be important so look for clues to take trades, long or short around there.
Euro/Yen: Woo hoo – finally caught a move which is currently +500 pips, If you missed it any yen moves then be patient and wait for price to pull back. The monthly emas seem to be very important at the moment so look there for pull backs. Euro/Yen around 117.20 tomorrow.
$/Yen: I need a big pull back and 87.70 is a long way away, but that’s it for me.
Aud/Yen: Failed to break 95.00 for last few weeks so a break and close above would be of interest for an M2 pull back entry, BUT I prefer a pull back to the trend line at 92.00 to long.
Gbp/$: There is a monthly trend line around 1.5700 that has held since 2008 THAT is a major line and will be crucial in the coming days and weeks. I will long there by placing a forward order If it breaks and CLOSES on at least a daily chart I will short. If it does break teh Gbp could be on for a major drop. There has been a swathe of weak data recently and this drip drip could see the Gbp fall many 100′s of pips.
Intraday 1.5800 continues to be key. Look for 4 hour candle clues to long, personally I am more interested to short so if price closes below 1.5800 I will look for a pull back entry to short.
Cad: Multiple wins from shorting at 1.000 from weekly charts, unfortunately last week was one of the rare losers following weaker than expected data and dovish comments re growth. I will only short this pair, but for now I do not know where! There is a trend line around 1.0200 but leaving for now.
Intraday possible M2 break below 1.000 BUT there is a weekly 55ema just below so not for me.
Euro/$: Usually one of my favourite pairs, but I was concentrating on teh Chf in recent months & I seem to have mis placed my mojo with this pair at the moment. If it breaks and CLOSES above 1.3500 I will consider a long but as ever I prefer a pull back and 1.3375 is my preferred area as explained in teh video.
Chf: Too messy. Leaving for now.
Euro/Gbp: Looks bullish but leaving for now.
New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.6000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum
Pierre, Vassilis (Capsmart), Raa, Omar, Mary, and other experienced members will be available in the forum to give you a more up to the minute assessment & whether they see any potential trades lining up in the next few days. Many members tell me this is the best forex forum there is (no back biting & bitchiness, nor spam, that spoils most forums) and all members are happy to help new visitors. Its a great resource, USE IT: Forex Forum
To view the video click http://youtu.be/ZBFGPbkXLik