Hi, the Gbp/$ trades finally got closed out last week, both of which gained over 600 pips. I showed in last Sunday’s video how & why I was moving stops tighter as I expected a pullback on the pair. At their peak they were over 800 pips in profit but as the aim was to try catch a possible 3000 pip move it was a fine balancing act. These trades and Februarys big Euro/Yen win have given well over 1000 pips which is my first quarters minimum target. Thats just 3 trades, taken from weekly analysis.
The down side to trading from longer time frames is you do need patience & discipline and have to accept that some weeks there will be very little action, sometimes not at all. I show in todays video my longer term potential trades, but also some intra day possibilities as well.
Last Week
Hopefully mine & Pierres cautionary advice last week kept you out of losers or at the very least kept any losses low. We both went into great detail explaining why technically & fundamentally the Gbp/$ was due a pull back and that it was best practise to be only in one $US trade at a time. A bounce against the $US was likely to be reflected across all pairs and that is exactly what happened.
Thieving Governments & Why You SHOULD Be Concerned
This weekend Cypriot banks have frozen the bank accounts of its citizens (and foreigners). The Greek Cypriot government are currently debating whether to steal up to 9.9% of savings held in their banks. This is one of the clauses added by the EU & IMF before they will hand over a bail out to the Greek Cypriot Government & banks. You may live in a society that you believe is above all of this type of skullduggery BUT the US Government forced their citizens to sell their gold (at a discounted price) to the Fed back in the 1930′s and more recently Argentina froze its citizens bank accounts in 2001.
In 2001 the country announced it could not pay back its foreign debt. Measures to cut government spending, carry out wage cuts, soaring unemployment (officially 20%), pensions delays for 1.4 million families, further pension reduction and freezing, social support and services diminished were one thing. When, however the government began to place limits on people’s bank accounts, on the amount they could withdraw, and the mostly dollar dominated accounts were converted to pesos at less than half the value, the real panic, anger and a rush on the banks began.
People had been withdrawing their savings in pesos from banks in exchange for dollars, and sending them abroad. They feared rising prices would leave their savings worthless. The Argentine Governments response to limit withdrawals to $250 per month from accounts, and freezing bank assets all together for periods tipped people over the edge. Those with loans in dollars faced huge payment increases due to interest rate madness, so people felt squashed between rising prices, job uncertainty and limited access to money.
So predictably enough, just before Christmas 2001, you can probably remember the images of Buenos Aires riots, queues, shortages, looting, and a country descending into chaos amidst the governments declaration of a state of emergency. Within days, the president and his economic minister had resigned, and the new bodies in charge had announced the default on the countries debt.
So, let’s do a little fast forward action here to March 2013.
Even though Argentina paid its debt to the IMF back in 2006, but not to all the others they owe to, they have now censured Argentina for inaccurate inflation statistics. The IMFs strict rules on the reporting of statistics, and its subsequent action against Kirchners’ Government, possibly reflects her increasingly desperate attempts to keep the lid on Argentina’s next economic collapse. After all, the government stopped issuing official statistics back in August 2012.
This, along with all the other well versed signs of a dire economic state, unsustainable debt, or inflation of currency when in trouble financially, are backed further by the government going down the same well trodden path towards the economic abyss…again. Read on…
Every form of economic, capital and population control is at present being practiced by Kirchner and her government on its people. Whilst it appears her own families personal fortune has increased 900% since taking control in 2003, this has little bearing on what’s happening to ‘her’ people all over again, in ‘her’ country.
Let’s take a look at some of these control measures;
- Increase in every tax rate : income, VAT, import duties, new wealth tax.
- Nationalization of many things private: for example pension funds, airlines, oil…
- Inflated money supply, printing currency, up 215% in the past 3 years.
- An imposed media control i.e; an advertising ban starving a revenue source for Argentine newspapers, particularly those openly opposed to the government and its actions.
- Imposing capital controls; reducing peoples abilities to hold gold, dollars, euros or anything else.
- Export controls and delaying bureaucratic delays on imports.
- Value and purchasing power of currency halved with inflation 30%+ per year.
Whilst the US dollar continues to lose the confidence of its investors, other major nations are stocking up on record amounts of real assets (gold and precious metals) as opposed to purchasing yet more US dollar reserves. Confidence is waning, starting to crack. As soon as the confidence starts to shake, the system begins to tremor too. Confidence is certainly beginning to crack, and our economic systems are beginning to break with it.
In Argentina, there were a number of folk who saw the writing on the wall, and had the good sense to get out before the government plundering began. Trust in their government had all but evaporated so they moved savings to stable foreign banks, bought property abroad, gold and silver and stored it far away and safe. With the increasingly obvious decline of the traditionally stronger currencies…dollar, yen, euro, and pounds, are we getting primed for increased and subsequent interventionist policies?. Put more crudely…Argentina style plundering of it’s own populations wealth?
Those of you who are also members of my Winners Inner Circle site will know why I have all my spare cash in gold and silver, stored in a stable foreign country. I believe its important to have assets and bank accounts in more than one country and you should certainly explore the possibilities before its too late. Pity those people in Cyprus this weekend. Make sutre it can NOT happen to you.
Forex Week Ahead.
I am zooming out to the weekly charts once more, but I may not see any action, therefore I also explain a few intra day trades I will be interested to take.
Gbp/$: 300 pip pullback last week meant my trades were closed out, but well over a 1000 pips from the two trades, so no reason to grumble
Price may turn back from its current position, but I favour a bigger pull back and 1.5380 is the place for me.Euro/$: I missed the 1.2900 bounce back up by a fraction of a pip on Thursday which was a sickener. Its counter trend so if it happens again I will look to take it at half my usual stake. I prefer a pullback to short and 1.3300 is my hoped for entry.
Intra day I will watch at market open & then again at London for a potential long at 1.3000 – from 4 hour charts. I will place my stop below 1.2900 as my target is 1.3290 so decent risk reward ratio
Chf: Bearish engulfing candle last week suggests a reversal back down. DO not be in this pair and the Euro/$ at the same time, but I will be interested to long at 0.9320 from 4 hour charts, intraday. A break below 0.9285 later in the week would see me looking for shorts. Again from 4 hour or even daily charts (I will wait for candles to close first).
Aud: Excellent run of results broke with last weeks bounce which could turn out to be a full blooded reversal. I will NOT place forward orders on the pair and will wait to see what happens as the week progresses. I will be interested to short (half stake) at 1.0580 once more and long at 1.0200 but price may not get there. Intra day 1.0380 would be an aggressive entry, not for me, but I will be watching 1.0330 for clues to long or short. Once again I will wait for 4 hour candles to close.
Aud/Yen: Fridays daily candle was an inside bar which suggests a reversal. I certainly need a pull back on this pair and 0.9740 is still the place. I show in the video how I may trade this on a 4 hour chart. Price is currently sat on a trend line that has been in place for a few weeks, if it breaks then an intra day short may be in order around 0.9890.
Euro/Yen: In January I missed the initial big moves and then had to wait for weeks to catch a move, BUT eventually it paid off for over 600 pips. I am still waiting for a pullback to 120.75 for multiple reasons
Cad: Too messy but 1.000 is my preferred entry once more. Its the psych level/parity. Strong previous support & resistance. 61.8% fib and the weekly 55ema – did someone mention multiple reasons!
Euro/Gbp: Usually one of my favourite pairs but nasty spikes at the moment. I will be interested to long at 0.8520. The upper 0.8800 area is also huge on this pair as its a 5 year trend line. If price gets back there watch closely for clues to long or short. If price clearly breaks and closes above on a daily we could be on for a major move. AT the moment a short seems more likely so I will watch 4 hour charts for candlestick clues to short.
New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.6000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum
Pierre, Vassilis (Capsmart), Raa, Omar, Mary, and other experienced members will be available in the forum to give you a more up to the minute assessment & whether they see any potential trades lining up in the next few days. Many members tell me this is the best forex forum there is (no back biting & bitchiness, nor spam, that spoils most forums) and all members are happy to help new visitors. Its a great resource, USE IT: Forex Forum
To View the Video cliick on the http://youtu.be/-cHPO6VyhoU