Marc Walton on March 24, 2013
Hi, impossible to predict what is likely to happen at the market open due to the ongoing Greek Cypriot banking saga. However there may be gap trades at the open and I show in todays video analysis what I will look to trade, where and why.
Last week saw some huge gaps at the open. I explained in detail in last Wednesdays post various ways to trade them. If you are going to trade at the market open then you need to make a plan in advance and then trade that plan. It worked perfectly for many 100′s of pips and gaps do usually close. The principle is the same for any type of trading. Identify areas that are likely to see price react, support & resistance, emas, whole numbers, fibs etc. Mark those lines on your charts and then wait for price to come to your zone.
For example last Sunday I pointed out that I was interested to long the Euro/$ if price fell to 1.2900. It fell 160 pips at the market open right into my zone.
I also show in the video area where I will look for trades after the open, BUT I will leave the Euro alone until the Greek Cypriot decision is out and the dust has settled. The current “word on the street” is that the IMF & EU are willing to accept that only those with savings over 100.000 will have their accounts broken into and money stolen. The thinking no doubt is that the bulk of smaller savers will be unaffected (there is also the slight matter of Euro Banks being protected up to that limit so the EU could find itself open to a major court case).
So if you have money in a Cypriot Bank. Money that you have already paid taxes on and you have been diligent and saved you could well find by tomorrow that you have been robbed by the state. Do not for a minute think this will only apply in this instance. Another worrying concern is that already the Cypriot government are going to take over private pension funds (if you have a pension you can guarantee that this will mean YOU will lose out). As per the winners inner circle this is why I have spent the last 3 years explaining why I have all spare cash in gold and silver and in a Country away from my own government.
Forex Week Ahead
Euro/$: Leaving alone apart from the possible gaps at the market open. If there aren’t any or they are too small then I will leave the news announcement about Cyprus. Areas of interest for gap trades 1.2900 for longs add 1.3070 for shorts, both for multiple reasons. IF the news is announced before the markets open then safest bet is probably to wait until the 1st hourly candle closes. If for example Cyprus goes for the bank tax then I cant see how there won’t be a run on the banks, including a knock on effect on other Euro banks. I know people here in Spain who took all their cash out last week.
Gbp/$: Not directly affected by the Euro news, BUT in times of panic the $USA is traditionally seen as a safe haven (ridiculous considering the state of the US debt mountain) but that would probably see $ strength across most pairs. I am interested to short at 1.5380
Euro/Gbp: Messy for gaps apart from 0.8700 for a short but that would be a very big gap on this pair. Apart from gaps 0.8500 is key on this pair. I would prefer a break and close below last weeks low at 0.8484, followed by a pullback for a short. If on the other hand price rises then I will look for clues to long above 0.8520 BUT only when Euro news is out.
Chf: Main area I am interested to long is 0.9340, but area for possible gap trades: 0.9340 long and 0.9480 short
Aud: Market open gaps and general trading I am interested to long at 1.0400, preferred entry being 1.0380. If price gaps up then I will look to short at 1.0500
Aud/Yen: 5/8 cross, macd and stochastic clues that price will fall. I have been waiting for weeks to long at 94.70 and that is still the place for me.
Euro/Yen: I am still waiting for a pullback to 120.75 for multiple reasons
$/Yen: 90.20 still main area for a long. More tricky than some of others for gaps, but 92.00 and 93.00 have some strength. Final option is on 4 hour charts look for a trend line break around 94.00, followed by a pullback to short as explained in the video.
Cad: Too messy but 1.020 is now my preferred entry once more. Its the psych level/parity. Strong previous support & resistance. 61.8% fib and the weekly 55ema – did someone mention multiple reasons! Intra day look for clues on 4 hour charts to long at 1.0200 but too choppy for me.
New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.6000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum
Pierre, Vassilis (Capsmart), Raa, Omar, Mary, and other experienced members will be available in the forum to give you a more up to the minute assessment & whether they see any potential trades lining up in the next few days. Many members tell me this is the best forex forum there is (no back biting & bitchiness, nor spam, that spoils most forums) and all members are happy to help new visitors. Its a great resource, USE IT: Forex Forum
To View the Video, click on the link http://youtu.be/PWVQRKO7Gik