Marc Walton on March 31, 2013
Hi,
Happy Easter to all of you. Whether its a religious festival for you or
simply a holiday then enjoy the break and chance to spend some time
with your family and friends. This week I am not planning on doing a
great deal of forex trading. Historically I had the worst results, year
on year for gaps traded when the clocks moved forwards, no idea why, but
its a sign! On top of that most of Europe is on holiday on Monday which
means thin liquidity and its NFP Friday, so not a bad week to walk
away.I will still be interested in potential trades mid week, but only from my longer term analysis.
The Cypriot crisis continues with news this weekend that the “haircut” (read daylight robbery) may result in those with deposits of over 100.000 euros now losing up to 60%. This disgraceful nonsense may eventually result in people losing everything. The papers are happy to report that a lot of depositors are Russian and that the money may have come from dubious sources. It didn’t stop the Cypriots accepting money in the first place AND there are a lot of retired people whose life savings/money to last the rest of their lives was in the bank.
Forex Week Ahead:
Euro/$: Price could gap at the open on news that up to 60% may now be stolen. Be very careful. As I mention in the video, this week was traditionally my least successful trading gaps and the Euro Bank Holiday means that there may be thin liquidity, which may see gaps not close. If you are looking to trade them then look for strong areas of previous support and resistance, where price is most likely to bounce.
I am more interested in a pullback to short and 1.2875 is the area for me. Intra day consider 1.2820
Gbp/$: Monthly pin bar candle suggests a move back up, but for now I am still only looking to short and 1.5350 is the area for me. Alos consider bounce trades as per the video, but not for me.
Euro/Gbp: M2 short worked last week, if you missed it then 0.8500 is the logical place to look for shorts.
Chf: Main area I am interested to long is 0.9340 but 0.9400 is strong support as well so intra day look there
Aud: Preferred entry being 1.0380. From longer time frames 1.0570 is also strong resistance so I will short there, half stake. Intra day look for clues to short at 1.0500
Yens: Big news this week and after a major move up I am still expecting a pull back, which could be bigger than expected. Only trade one at a time,
Aud/Yen: 5/8 cross, macd and stochastic clues that price will fall. I have been waiting for weeks to long at 97.400 and that is still the place for me.
Euro/Yen: messy, leaving alone
$/Yen: 90.20 still main area for a long.
Cad: Too messy but 1.0030 is my preferred entry once more. Its the psych level/parity. Strong previous support & resistance. 61.8% fib and the weekly 55ema – did someone mention multiple reasons!
New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.6000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum
Pierre, Vassilis (Capsmart), Raa, Omar, Mary, and other experienced members will be available in the forum to give you a more up to the minute assessment & whether they see any potential trades lining up in the next few days. Many members tell me this is the best forex forum there is (no back biting & bitchiness, nor spam, that spoils most forums) and all members are happy to help new visitors. Its a great resource, USE IT: Forex Forum
To View the Video, click on the link here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEKmNYbhaQE