Marc Walton on April 7, 2013
Hi,
lots of spookily accurate analysis last week means that forex is now
officially easy and we can all make a fortune from now on? Not exactly 
Over confidence has blown as many accounts (including mine in my early
days) than lack of knowledge in my experience. If you had a good week
last week, your first goal is not to give it back in the week ahead.A lot of last weeks moves worked to the pip if you were willing to wait and use the old patience and discipline. I show in the start of this weeks video why I chose the successful areas on the Euro/$, Aud, Euro/Gbp as well as why price stopped after NFP at the projected areas on the Chf and the Gbp/$.
The best way to learn to trade forex in my experience is as follows: Do your own analysis BEFORE watching mine, Dean or Pierres. Zoom out to longer time-frames and look for MAJOR areas of support & resistance, fibs, emas etc and if they look strong enough, consider placing forward orders (first checking which days there is red flag news). If there is news due, pause the order or wait until it comes out and the dust settles.
This then is your A list.
Next have a look at other areas where you think price is likely to react on smaller time frames. For example if I am waiting for a 250 pip pullback on a pair, is there another, smaller area where price might react? If so don’t place forward orders. Look at 4 hour charts and wait for candle closes. Make a note of these areas (put lines and notes & set alarms on your charts) and trade this B list “live” – ie wait to see what happens THEN take a trade.
Finally, now how a look at my analysis. Does your analysis agree with mine? If not why not? Yours might be better than mine so its not a case of ignoring your own, its simply a matter of being able to reexamine your own and then make a decision. You may have missed something I point out that could save you from a loser. Equally you might see something that I did not and you make a better trade. The whole aim of this site is to teach you to learn to trade for yourself and not simply blindly follow.
The Forex Week Ahead
Having said all of the above, this week is NOT easy to calculate at the moment. There is often an over reaction to NFP news which then sees a pullback or even reversal after traders have had the week end to reflect and price on many pairs has stopped at major areas.
Personally I will wait until after London opens and see what happens before taking trades, the only exception to that is I will look to see if there are any tradable gaps at the market open.
The following then is more vague than usual, although there are a few “major” areas where I will place a forward order. I will look to update you with more confidence on Wednesday, once I have seen how the market behaves. Will the $ weakness become a reversal or simply a pullback?
Euro/$: Very messy. Stopped just below the crucial 1.3000 which is the key area. Longer term charts I am interested to short if price gets up to 1.3300 and from a 4 hour chart I may take a 1.2900 long (half stake as against the current trend) but I am not overly confident and feel there are better opportunities elsewhere.
Gbp/$: Closed to the pip at 1.5337 line I have had on my charts for week.s This is the “make your mind up line” for the pair at the moment. I will wait until after London opens and will only take a trade on 4 hour candle closes. Either a clear move back down or up, followed by a pullback. If its choppy I will walk away.
Euro/Gbp: Last few weeks I have had winning trades at the same place, if you missed it then 0.8520 is the logical place to look for shorts.
Chf: Too messy, but if it pulls back up to 94.90 I will look on 4 hour charts for clues to short.
Aud:From longer time frames 1.0570 is also strong resistance so I will short there, half stake. Intra day look for clues to short at 1.0500 once more (worked a number of occasions last few weeks. Iwill watch 1.0340 on 4 hour for possible longs, but only half stake as this pair is looking bearish on a daily chart.
Yens: Big news last week saw all yens race upwards. I was taken out of my Aud/Yen long by 1 pip and then watched it go 500
The Bank of Japan have now confirmed that they will print as much
money as necessary to create inflation and weaken their currency and
therefore further Yen weakness is to be expected, the difficulty is
catching the moves!Aud/Yen: Price broke and closed above the all important 100.00 line, this is the logical area for a pullback entry for me.
Euro/Yen: Murphy’s Law, did the M2 break out, pullback on Friday. Leaving alone as it stopped at a double top and I prefer the other 2 yen pairs
$/Yen: 94.50 is main area for a long. Intraday watch 4 hour charts for reaction at 96.30
Cad: Still messy but 1.0030 is my preferred entry once more. Its the psych level/parity. Strong previous support & resistance. 61.8% fib and the weekly 55ema – did someone mention multiple reasons! Intra day I will consider shorts (half stake) at 1.0260 BUT very small ranges lately make this not such an attractive option
New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.6000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum
Pierre, Vassilis (Capsmart), Raa, Omar, Mary, and other experienced members will be available in the forum to give you a more up to the minute assessment & whether they see any potential trades lining up in the next few days. Many members tell me this is the best forex forum there is (no back biting & bitchiness, nor spam, that spoils most forums) and all members are happy to help new visitors. Its a great resource, USE IT: Forex Forum