Marc Walton on May 25, 2013
Hi,
eventful week last week with lots of opportunities but I realise that
it is difficult for some of you as you have the J.O.B which gets in the
way of your trading. That is one of the reasons I am concentrating on
daily and weekly charts for potential trades as much as is possible. The
other reason is purely selfish, I have no desire nor time to sit
looking at forex charts all day 
The Euro/Yen potential trade from last Sundays analysis actually fired at the market open and made my weekly minimum target of 100 pips before London even opened, so if you can trade the market open get in the habit of spending 15 minutes checking your charts. Throughout the year you will usually find trades at least once a month.
I put my major area lines on my charts and see if price gaps or races towards them.It happened to perfection on the Euro/yen.
I said last Sunday that I was more interested in that pair out of the 3 Yen pairs I trade.
At the market open price made a small gap and then plunged 140 pips to my entry. It looks obvious in hind sight BUT I explained why that was my chosen area to long and therefore it was a simple case of making a plan and then trading that plan.
I find it so frustrating when folks email me and say that ” I read your analysis and it made sense but then I didn’t take the trade as I got scared due to the severe move.” Emotions kill forex traders. Make a plan and then do it!
I also mentioned in last weeks analysis why I and more experienced members would be interested to long the Aud at 0.9600. It WAS a “catch a falling knife scenario” so therefore I only risk half my usual stake BUT I explain in detail in the start of todays video that there were a ton of clues from gold, silver and other pairs that the $USA was weakening all round. Learn to use all the pairs for signs of general $ strength and weakness.
Forex Week Ahead
Monday is a Bank Holiday in the USA and UK so liquidity should be dramatically reduced. Recently this has usually led to days where its like watching paint dry when looking for moves. However sometimes we can see extreme moves. Be extra careful on Monday especially with the Gbp/$.
The $USA finally saw some pull backs towards the end of last week which was not surprising after the recent moves and even more so with the Yens. There were lots of clues that the Yens were stalling last week and further clues that we could see some BIG pullbacks. I will be very wary with the Yens this week. It is very unusual for pairs to simply power in one direction without a major pause or pullback.
Gbp/$: From longer time frames my preferred, forward order trade is to short at 1.5330 once more for multiple reasons. The other major area is 1.5000 either a counter trend (risky) long at 1.5000 or a more conservative break below and standard M2 pull back trade which could be a big drop as there is nothing below.
Euro/$: I said last week There is a monthly potential 2000 pip brewing and a weekly 720 pip head and shoulders potential move and we are in the neck line zone right now!! Nothing has changed.The head and shoulder entry will be a break and close below 1.2790 followed by a pull back – explained in detail in the video.
My other preferred trade is to short at 1.3000 for multiple reasons.
Intraday look for clues to long or short at 1.2900 but not for me.
Euro/Gbp: Price broke out of a major triangle and above major support and resistance at 0.8500. I will long there for lots of reasons and only small stop needed. Another option is counter trend short at 0.8600 but only from 4 hour closed candles (half stake) for me.
Chf: Weekly inverse head and shoulders broke the 0.9600 neck line. This may have already played out BUT I will watch at the market open. If it doesn’t gap or drop steeply I will long from current position. If it does gap down I will still be interested to long from the new low.
Aud: Multiple options: Bounced beautifully off 0.9600 last week. I was going to wait for a 4 hour candle close but as I show in the video there was a LOT of clues from gold, silver and other pairs that the $USA was pulling back, before or at the same time. I will look there once more for a half stake bounce back up, as ever watch gold and silver. If that area breaks then that is a MAJOR move and I will be looking for a standard M2 break out short.
Intraday a pullback to 0.9800 will also be interesting to short. Finally if it roars back up then a further short at parity for all the reasons stated above.
Aud/Yen: Leaving alone. Feels too risky to me.
Euro/Yen: Currently sat on last weeks 131.00 entry point but it looks very bearish to me. I will probably leave alone.
$/Yen: I am not very confident with any of the Yens right now as they all look very bearish but I would like to catch a bigger pullback as I believe that they will continue to rise substantially for the rest of the year.I am only interested to long, 100 is the 1st place for a pull back after a major move up. More conservative entry is long at 96.50 one to watch from 4 hour charts for me and decide on the day.
Cad: “Neutral” – this is expert speak for “I have no idea”!
300 in profit from Parity bounce 3 weeks ago, leaving alone.New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.6000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum
Pierre, Vassilis (Capsmart), Raa, Omar, Mary, and other experienced members will be available in the forum to give you a more up to the minute assessment & whether they see any potential trades lining up in the next few days. Many members tell me this is the best forex forum there is (no back biting & bitchiness, nor spam, that spoils most forums) and all members are happy to help new visitors. Its a great resource, USE IT: Forex Forum
To View the Video, click on the link http://youtu.be/UAB1IxJMCH0