Forex Weekly Analysis And a Request

Marc Walton on December 8, 2013  

 

Hello Forex Enthusiasts!!This week will start the second week of the December trading month and for me one of the last two weeks I will trade in 2013.  I cut my trading off before Christmas and don’t pick up again until the New Year.  I have gone on ad naseum in the past about why I don’t trade during that particular time of year so I will spare you THAT talk.
That aside, it is a great time of year to reflect on many aspects of your life, especially your trading (for the purposes of discussion here at least).  It’s good to take some time to see what worked, what didn’t and think about what’s next.  I love to view this time of year as “employment review” time for your trading.  Each of your methods, systems, tools are really your “employees” in trading.  Staying out of the live market can give you time to really ask yourself some questions about your employees like:

• Did they perform like I thought they would?
• Did some perform better than others?
• Did I support this employee so that it could succeed?  (think discipline in usage, education, correct market, etc…)
• Can I make staffing changes to benefit me in the New Year?

The reason I look at my trading in this manner is I want to separate myself from the equation so that I can analyze what was my fault and what was the system, tool or approaches fault.  For example, a breakout strategy may have failed because I didn’t use it consistently (my fault), or it failed because it wasn’t a good system (system’s fault).  It takes time and experience to be able to separate the variables so don’t be hard on yourself if you can’t figure out sometimes whether it was something you did or it was the tool/approach/system that worked/didn’t work.  The fact that you are thinking about it will invariably lead to growth in this area.  So during this holiday season, when you are smart enough to stay out of bad markets, spend a little time analyzing your house of trading so you can make decisions in the New Year that will lead you….(in Mr. Walton’s words)….ONWARD AND UPWARD!!


Special Request:
For the last full week of December which is also Christmas week, we are still bringing you content!!  But I can assure you it WON’T be market analysis, trade recommendations or areas of interest.  Instead, I want to take that week and get the community involved in sharing some of their trading experiences this year or in general.  This is where YOU come in!!  Please send me a short (doesn’t have to be more than a few lines, but can be longer if you choose) statement in which you share a trading experience with everyone else.  It can be about anything you like that you want to share with the group.  If you want to share how you grew as a trader in 2013, awesome!!  If you choose to share a funny trading story, bring it!!  If you want to talk about a trade you had or silly market you conquered or lost to, I’m all ears!!  My goal is to create a mini-compilation of experiences so we can all see how alike we are in our journey to become better traders.  I can’t wait to hear your story!!  Please also let me know if you want me to use your name or not when you send your submission.  I will NEVER use someone’s name unless they want me to, and if you forget to say one way or another, I will protect your anonymity and just leave your name out.  Anyway, I’m excited to see what comes in the mailbox.  Please send all submissions to:  Omar@forex-fxtrader.com.
Forex Weekly Analysis for Week Beginning December 08, 2013
Markets have certainly been tradable the last few weeks and we have 2 more good ones to go hopefully!!  Now that NFP is out of the way, we just need to add volume in the markets and we should have some trades!!  Many pairs have broken out of multi-month ranges and are just a pullback away from potentially big gains.  Let’s see what’s in store!!
Euro/$:  Looking bullish still but finished week below 1.3715 which is a very important horizontal s/r.  On the daily we see both the trendline and horzontal s/r directly above price, so we need price to break above this to take a long with confidence.  Counter-trend traders will seek shorts from the same area until it breaks above.  Safe trade is wait for the breakout above 1.3715 and long from there.   Explained in the video.
Gbp/$: Our 1.6200 upper range was broken a few weeks ago and price has continued moving up since.  Pullbacks to 1.6300 are my favorite potential trade for a long, and we have very clear skies above until 1.6700-1.6730 which is a major area of s/r.  If price falls below 1.6300 though, 1.6200 again becomes the next area to look for a long.  See the video for more!
Aud/$: While both the Euro and Gbp against the USD have moved up, the Aud has moved lower during the last few weeks.  Last week, it touched off .9000 yet again and formed a weekly doji, with some volatility in between.  I don’t like when the 3 majors don’t move in the same direction at the same time, and the odd one out usually has me leaving it alone.  That being said, a break below .9000 on the daily and I will seek a short from that area.  Otherwise I am leaving this pair alone until direction becomes clearer.  Higher-risk entries are available at .9200 and .9300 for shorts and .9040 and .9000 for longs if you don’t mind the extra risk.
Euro/Gbp: Two weeks ago, this looked bearish.  Then last week, we had a bigger bullish move to reverse the prior week.  That makes me less comfortable going forward until I see more of a move.  I don’t want to trade this pair until we get a daily break above 8450-8500 or a daily break below 8300-8250.  Then I will see, but until then I’m leaving alone.  More details in video.
$/Yen: This pair has been great to trade as of late again.  Making some really nice moves up over the last few weeks.  That being said, it closed the week right at the monthly 200 EMA and may be due for a pullback.  Look for my preferred long at 101.50 but may dip all the way back to 100.50-100.00 before heading higher.  Higher-risk entry for a short at 200 ema at 102.82.  Break above 103.75 will certainly have me interested in longing from there.  Be careful with this area though as last weekly close above was back in 2008.  Video for more explanation.
Euro/Yen: This pair has been rock and roll!!  Wooo.  Very nice moves up, looks strongly bullish as it has weekly close above 139.00 which was the area price hasn’t closed above since mid-2008.  Look to long from this area for sure.  1000 pips to run on the way up all the way to 150.00.  Could be a very big trade.   Check le video for details.
Aud Yen: What happens when 1 pair in the cross goes up pretty strongly, while the other heads lower??  The cross goes NOWHERE.  That’s what we have here.  Not worth our time until we break this tight range.  Avoid.
Usd/Cad:  Another pair that has broken a long-term range and headed up.  Look for a pullback to 1.0560 for a long or wait for a breakout above 1.0680 to long from there as well.  CT traders will look for another short at 1.0680.  I go into a bit more detail in the video.
Eur/Cad: This pair has been in a strong uptrend for a little while now.  We just need a place for a pullback. 1.4435 or even 1.4350 seem to be those areas.  If pair doesn’t pullback, a break above 1.4600 will have me thinking long from that area.  CT traders will look to use that same area for a short if price struggles to break above it.
New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.5000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum
Hope you enjoy the analysis!! See you Wednesday for an update!! Best wishes and happy trading to all!!!