Pierre DuPlessis on December 6, 2013
What a week we had!!
It was raining pips all over the place…….and the best part of it, I showed you already on Tuesday morning where to look for trades even before price got to the entry areas.
I personally only took two trades this week that in total gave me almost a month’s worth of pips. My target is to get one home run a week (100 pips) and if I can get that, then I am a happy camper!
The trades I took: One Earth and Sky trade on the Dollar/CHF pair that gave me 80 odd pips and the one stunning counter trade from a pivot level on the GBP/JPY that gave me 260 pips leaving me only with 60 pips to get the rest of the month – and its only the 6th today !
One of my mates `Whats up` me this week on my cell phone. He had a problem with over trading!!
Like this week we had plenty of pairs that gave us an opportunity to trade them. PROBLEM IS – YOU DONT HAVE TO TAKE ALL OF THEM!!!
When you new to trading, you just can’t withstand the temptation to take` EVERY `trade that comes your way mates. I know – I have the T shirt. This will lead to over trading big time mates and you will lose your account in now time.
I only trade the pairs Marc and I look at. No funny pairs please mates!!!! I mean why on earth do you want to trade a pair that you know nothing about plus have no back up.
If I talk back up here – then I mean back up from our analysis we give here at FMP.
It takes a hell of allot of time to bring you these analysis for the week and its a huge responsibility for us – we go out of our way to bring you the best spot on analysis we can to limit your risk – and then you go and trade the `funny` pairs – I mean really !!!
Set yourself a goal – see if you can get to 100 pips with as few possible trades a week. This will make you look twice before you just jump in. Now its a different ball game as you will pay more attention to the pairs you trade, the setups, the risk reward ratio just to name a few.
Try it and let me know what is the outcome please !
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Truth saying for the weekend:
` A lot of people are afraid to say what they want – that is why they don`t get what they want ` – Madonna
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1) Euro Index on the 4 hour chart:
Previous weeks Opening/Closing: Plus 16 pips
Earth and Sky trading zone for the week:
Price is above the 200 EMA (The pink line on the chart)
34 EMA (sky) is above the 55 EMA (earth) – (The blue and brown line on the chart)
Direction: Long (Up)
Potential trading zone is between: 110.21 to 109.87
Potential area to look for reaction: The 110.18/10 levels
Potential Profit take areas: The 110.53 and 110.89 levels
MACDEE Divergence: NO
Stochastic: OVERSOLD
Did we open with a GAP after the weekend? NO
Potential Counter Trades: At the 110.89 and 111.00 levels
Potential Profit take areas with a counter trade: At the 110.53 and 110.00 levels.
Notes: I fib the 4 hour chart from 20 November`s low to last week’s high to get this week’s potential trading zone. If price breaks the 200 EMA at 110.18 to the downside all long bias will be of the table for me.
Fridays Notes:
Earth and Sky Method: The 50% fib, the 200 EMA and daily 55 EMA at 110.17 this week gave support this week. Price bounced three times of this level – with yesterday`s move that gave the biggest jump that reached our profit take area at the weekly pivot point at 110.89.This trade gave us almost 70 pips.
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2) Euro/USD on the 4 hour chart:
Previous weeks Opening/Closing: Plus 32 pips
Earth and Sky trading zone for the week:
Price is above the 200 EMA (The pink line on the chart)
34 EMA (sky) is above the 55 EMA (earth) – (The blue and brown line on the chart)
Direction: Long (Up)
Potential trading zone is between: 1.3511 to 1.3453
Potential area to look for reaction: The 1.3534/21 and 1.3511 areas.
Potential Profit take areas: The 1.3567 – 1.3600 and 1.3644 levels.
MACDEE Divergence: NO
Stochastic: OVERSOLD
Did we open with a GAP after the weekend? NO
Potential Counter Trades: At the 1.3627 and 1.3644 levels.
Potential Profit take areas with a counter trade: At the 1.3567 and 1.3534 levels
Notes: I fib the 4 hour chart from 21st of November`s low to last week`s high to get this week`s potential trading zone. If price breaks the 1.3500 level to the downside all long bias will be of the table for me. There is a possible head and shoulder forming on the daily chart PLUS we can see how price is also trapped in a triangle. All tell tell signs that there is something big movements coming.
Fridays Notes:
Earth and Sky Method: Remember – the Euro Index and Euro/Dollar is correlated. Price here also found support this week at the 200 EMA and daily 55 EMA at 1.3527. We were within 10 pips from the 50% fib but I did mention in Tuesdays write up to keep your eyes on the 1.3534/21 and 1.3511 areas. Price bounced twice from the 1.3527 – with yesterdays move that reached our profit take area at the weekly pivot point at 1.3644.This trade gave us 114 pips.
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3) Euro/JPY on the 4 hour chart:
Previous weeks Opening/Closing: Plus 202 pips
Earth and Sky trading zone for the week:
Price is above the 200 EMA (The pink line on the chart)
34 EMA (sky) is above the 55 EMA (earth) – (The blue and brown line on the chart)
Direction: Long (Up)
Potential trading zone is between: 138.45 to 137.71 (New zone 138.51 to 137.76 after we followed it with the fib)
Potential area to look for reaction: At the 138.64/45 and 138.00 levels
Potential Profit take areas: At the 139.00 and 140.28 levels.
MACDEE Divergence: YES !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Stochastic: No man’s land.
Did we open with a GAP after the weekend? NO
Potential Counter Trades: At the 140.00 and 140.28 levels.
Potential Profit take areas with a counter trade: The 138.64 and 138.00 levels.
Notes: We have big time Negative MACDEE Divergence – this is a tell tell sign that we can run into trouble with long at the moment and that a pullback can be expected. If price make new highs (as I think it will because we are on our way to the weekly pivot at 140.28) follow it with your fib to get the new potential trading zone.
Fridays Notes:
Counter Trade: I told you on Tuesday we had Negative MACDEE Divergence on the 4 hour chart. Price however made a new high and we had to follow it with our fib. Price got within 11 pips from the weekly pivot at 140.28 before it started to move down again. I said to keep your eyes open at 140.00/28 level for a counter trade. Price drop from the 140.00 level all the way to the main weekly pivot at 138.64 where we also had the 50% fib and weekly main pivot where it reached our profit take area. This counter trade gave us 146 pips.
Earth and Sky Method: On Wednesday and Thursday price found support at the 138.51 level. This is where we had the 55 EMA and main weekly pivot point plus the 50% fib waiting. This trade is currently 60 odd pips up and we hoping for it to reached our profit take area at 140.00
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4) Euro/GBP on the 4 hour chart:
Previous weeks Opening/Closing: Min 55 pips
Earth and Sky trading zone for the week:
Price is under the 200 EMA (The pink line on the chart)
34 EMA (sky) is under the 55 EMA (earth) – (The blue and brown line on the chart)
Direction: Short (Down)
Potential trading zone is between: 0.8319 to 0.8353
Potential area to look for reaction: The 0.8319/26 levels
Potential Profit take areas: At the 0.8291 and 0.8258 levels.
MACDEE Divergence: No
Stochastic: Oversold
Did we open with a GAP after the weekend? NO
Potential Counter Trades: At the 0.8258 level
Potential Profit take areas with a counter trade: The 0.8300 and 0.8319 levels
Notes: Price had a nice big tumble since last week. Currently we are sitting on the weekly pivot at 0.8258 that can be possible support.
Fridays Notes:
Counter Trade: Price found support at that weekly pivot at 0.8258 levels I mentioned on Tuesday. We jumped from this level all the way back to the 50% fib and weekly main pivot level at 0.8323. This trade gave us 61 pips.
Earth and Sky Method: Once price got back to the 50% fib level and weekly main pivot at 0.8323 we got burned here and price dropped back to 0.8271 reaching our first profit take area at 0.8291 giving us at least almost 40 pips. Unfortunately yesterday’s news made this pair turn once again back up and we shot past the trading zone. Price is currently finding resistance at the mother in law at 0.8374
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5) GBP/USD on the 4 hour chart:
Previous weeks Opening/Closing: Plus 147 pips.
Earth and Sky trading zone for the week:
Price is above the 200 EMA (The pink line on the chart)
34 EMA (sky) is above the 55 EMA (earth) – (The blue and brown line on the chart)
Direction: Long (UP)
Potential trading zone is between: 1.6286 to 1.6209
Potential area to look for reaction: The 1.6300 and 1.6269 levels.
Potential Profit take areas: At the 1.6400 and 1.6462 levels.
MACDEE Divergence: YES !!!!!!!!!!!!
Stochastic: NO MANS LAND.
Did we open with a GAP after the weekend? NO
Potential Counter Trades: At the 1.6442/62 levels.
Potential Profit take areas with a counter trade: The 1.6300 level.
Notes: We have BIG time negative MACDEE Divergence showing up. This is a tell tell sign we might get a bigger pullback this week. If we do break the 1.6269 level this week to the down side – be careful with longs then as we might drop all the way to 1.6133 where we have the 200 EMA waiting.
Fridays Notes:
Counter Trade: I told you on Tuesday we had Negative MACDEE Divergence and that we can expect a pullback. Price however did make a double top at that 1.6442 level I mentioned and gave us the opportunity to take a counter short. This trade dropped and we reached our profit take area at 1.6300 giving us 130 odd pips. Price is currently sitting at the weekly main pivot and 55 EMA at 1.6312 where it looks like a possible support area forming.
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6) GBP/JPY on the 4 hour chart:
Previous weeks Opening/Closing: Plus 348 pips
Earth and Sky trading zone for the week:
Price is above the 200 EMA (The pink line on the chart)
34 EMA (sky) is above the 55 EMA (earth) – (The blue and brown line on the chart)
Direction: Long (UP)
Potential trading zone is between: 166.35 to 165.00
Potential area to look for reaction: The 166.49 and 166.00 and 165.65 levels.
Potential Profit take areas: At the168.00 and 169.00 levels.
MACDEE Divergence: YES !!!!!!!!!!!
Stochastic: OVERBOUGHT
Did we open with a GAP after the weekend? NO
Potential Counter Trades: At the 169.00/39 level.
Potential Profit take areas with a counter trade: The 168.00 – 167.00 and 166.37 levels.
Notes: We have Big time negative MACDEE Divergence showing up – Price is on its way to the weekly pivot at 169.31 – so if we make new highs, follow it with your fib to get the new trading zone for the week. Price will be outside the Bollinger band if we get to the weekly pivot so keep your eyes open for a counter short.
Fridays Notes:
Counter Trade: This turned out to be a stunning counter trade and I took some good pips on this pair this week. I told you we had Negative MACDEE Divergence showing up early this week. Price got within 12 pips from the weekly pivot at 1.0931. We had a doji 4 hour candle at the psychological level of 169.00 with MACDEE divergence and overbought stochastic. I placed a direct order at 169.00 with stop on the other side of the weekly pivot. Price dropped from here reaching my profit take area at the weekly main pivot and 50% fib at 166.49 giving me 255 pips.