Marcs Weekly Analysis

Marc Walton on December 1, 2013 

 

Hi, it’s the BIG scheduled news week including interest rates, press conferences, speeches and culminating with the very silly NFP (USA job news) so as ever my plan is to be finished before Thursday. Last months explosive, unexpected moves should have taught you why I don’t like to go looking for trouble and strongly suggest you don’t either.
Last week I showed you the importance of Bollinger bands and the clues they were giving about price drying up and why not to long the Euro/$ I also showed why I wasn’t looking to short the AUd/Yen as I felt the risk reward was poor. I was correct on both counts so hopefully you saw why I recommended leaving them alone.
AT the start of todays analysis I give a quick recap of what I was looking for and what happened.
There have been some break outs from major pairs so as ever I am looking for pull backs to enter.
This week there are some awesome potential risk reward trades which I explain in detail in the video. A couple of these and we will have an early Christmas present, fingers crossed
It’s the monthly candle close time, get into the habit of checking out the patterns as they often give clues to direction for the month ahead.

Euro/$: Two months of indecision candles sum up how messy this pair is right now. I am going to concentrate on trading from weekly/monthly charts.
Forward orders: Looking for shorts at 1.3830 (great risk reward ratio -which is a 61.8% weekly fib and recent double top. I am looking to long at 1.3330
Intraday options are a long at 1.3500 or an M2 break out pull back long if price breaks and closes above 1.3635 (just above last weeks high IF the bollingers swing open on daily. If they close leaving alone
Gbp/$: Price broke and closed above 1.6300 which was major previous resistance so looking for an entry there to long, my only concern is that it stopped at a double top last week. If it pulls back further I will long at 1.6100
Aud/$: VERY messy at the moment. If monthly Bollinger closes then I will be interested to long at 0.8900. If it stays wide open I will leave UNLESS it closes there on a daily – see video.
If it pulls back upwards I will look to short at 0.9370
Euro/Gbp: Worked perfectly last week. Currently sat on 0.8300 I will watch at London open on 4 hour charts for possible bounce back up but best entries for me will be pullbacks to short at 0.8400 with stop at 0.8300 so good risk reward.
I will also watch 0.8350 on 4 hour charts as unlikely to get to 0.8400 on Monday due to average daily range.

Final option is if price breaks and closes below 0.8290 on a daily candle I will look for a pull back to short. IF this area breaks the Euro could be on for a big drop versus the Gbp and the fundamentals certainly support that theory

$/Yen: Major break in recent weeks. I will long at 101.10 If that loses I will re long at 100.00

Euro/Yen: Continues upwards BUT not for me unless it pulls back. The conservative place for a forward order is 135.00 for me. A more aggressive entry is 138.00 but much poorer risk reward ratio potential

Aud Yen: Hopefully I kept you out of shorting it last week. Too messy for me. If it breaks and closes below 92.00 on a daily candle I will be interested to short BUT better options elsewhere

Usd/Cad:  Major break out on a monthly chart. I will look to long at 1.0550. If that fails I will do so again at 1.0420 – all explained in the video

New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.5000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.

We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum

 Grab the $1 trial and you can have  everyday forex analysis, videos and much much more there

http://tinyurl.com/cmxhtcj